Commodity Corner: Oil Edges Lower on Econ Woes

- Commodity Corner: Oil Edges Lower on Econ Woes

Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Rigzone Staff
by Saaniya Bangee

Light, sweet oil edged lower Tuesday on lingering concerns about the global economy.

Oil futures traded 43 cents lower at $86.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Concerns that the European debt crisis might worsen pushed prices and equities lower Tuesday. Traders worry that the economic plague could spread to neighboring countries.

Prices fell as low as $83.20 a barrel in intraday trading as U.S. stock indexes plummeted for a third consecutive session. They peaked at $86.50. Earlier today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 308 points but rebounded after the Greek government indicated swifter economic reforms.

Traders are waiting to take cues from President Obama and the Federal Reserve's speech later this week.

Brent crude, which is used to price many international oil varieties, gained $2.81 Tuesday to settle at $112.89 a barrel. Brent took its cues from production problems in the North Sea and a continued absence of Libyan oil in the market.

Likewise, natural gas for October delivery added 6.6 cents to settle at $3.94 per thousand cubic feet. Prices fluctuated between $3.85 and $3.95 Tuesday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center reported that a new weather system west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands had a 90 percent chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours.

After trading between $2.77 and $2.84, front-month gasoline lost 1.7 cents to settle down at $2.82 a gallon.

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BOEMRE: Operators Evacuate Ops in GOM

- BOEMRE - Operators Evacuate Ops in GOM

Monday, September 05, 2011
BOEMRE

Offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico are evacuating platforms and rigs in the path of Tropical Storm Lee. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE) Hurricane Response Team is monitoring the operators' activities. The team will continue to work with offshore operators and other state and federal agencies until operations return to normal and the storm is no longer a threat to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activities.

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 a.m. CDT Sunday, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 239 production platforms, equivalent to 38.7 percent of the 617 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Production platforms are the structures located offshore from which oil and natural gas are produced. Unlike drilling rigs, which typically move from location to location, production facilities remain in the same location throughout a project's duration

Personnel have been evacuated from 25 rigs, equivalent to 35.7 percent of the 70 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. Rigs can include several types of self-contained offshore drilling facilities including jackup rigs, submersibles and semisubmersibles.

As part of the evacuation process, personnel activate the applicable shut-in procedure, which can frequently be accomplished from a remote location. This involves closing the sub-surface safety valves located below the surface of the ocean floor to prevent the release of oil or gas. During the recent hurricane seasons, the shut-in valves functioned 100 percent of the time, efficiently shutting in production from wells on the Outer Continental Shelf and protecting the marine and coastal environments. Shutting-in oil and gas production is a standard procedure conducted by industry for safety and environmental reasons.

From operator reports, it is estimated that approximately 60.2 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in. It is also estimated that approximately 44.3 percent of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in. The production percentages are calculated using information submitted by offshore operators in daily reports. Shut-in production information included in these reports is based on the amount of oil and gas the operator expected to produce that day. The shut-in production figures therefore are estimates, which BOEMRE compares to historical production reports to ensure the estimates follow a logical pattern.

After the hurricane has passed, facilities will be inspected. Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back on line immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back on line. BOEMRE will continue to update the evacuation and shut-in statistics at 1:00 p.m. CDT each day as appropriate.

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Commodity Corner: Ben, Irene Contribute to Volatility

- Commodity Corner: Ben, Irene Contribute to Volatility

Friday, August 26, 2011
Rigzone Staff
by Matthew V. Veazey

The price of a barrel of light sweet crude oil experienced some volatility Friday before settling at $85.37, or just seven cents day-on-day.

The WTI fell as low as $82.95 after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., did not announce any Fed plans to launch a third round of quantitative easing. A "QE3" would be bullish for oil and other commodities because it would weaken the U.S. dollar.

Hurricane Irene's pending arrival along the East Coast did create upward momentum for the benchmark, however. The WTI peaked at $85.64 as investors weighed the possible effects the storm may have on refining infrastructure and gasoline supplies in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The Brent contract price also settled higher Friday, gaining 74 cents to end the day at $111.36 a barrel. It traded within a range from $109.38 to $111.65.

Despite Irene's potential impact on East Coast fuel supplies, reformulated gasoline lost four cents to settle at $2.93 a gallon. The U.S. Coast Guard's lack of a decision during floor trading to close New York Harbor prevented a bullish outcome Friday.

September gasoline peaked at $2.98 and bottomed out at $2.91 during the pre-storm session.

Natural gas for September delivery settled flat at $3.93 per thousand cubic feet. It fluctuated from $3.90 to $3.96.

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Black Elk, ES&G Join Forces to Protect Platforms during Hurricane Season

- Black Elk, ES&G Join Forces to Protect Platforms during Hurricane Season

Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Black Elk Energy, LLC

Black Elk announced a proactive project with ES&H Consulting & Training Group to strategically place waterproof sensors on each platform. The sensors emit a continuous location signal that is used as a tracking device. If the sensor becomes submerged or is damaged, as it might in hurricane conditions, the signal is then lost, suggesting damage to the structure and thus a possible environmental impact. This would alert ES&H Consulting & Training Group and Black Elk Energy to quickly investigate the incident, enabling a more effective management response. Black Elk Energy is currently 50% deployed with the remainder to be installed within the next 45 days.

The units are manufactured by ESSI Corporation and utilize low earth orbit satellites (LEO) and transmit on L-band frequencies, providing excellent rain fade performance. The systems send a small data packet with location information, battery status, etc., every four hours as long as there is a clear line of sight to the sky. If no signal is received, resources can be concentrated within 4 hours’ passage of a storm. The lithium ion batteries last an entire hurricane season and are field serviceable.

"We understand the importance of being prepared for what may come with hurricane season," said John Hoffman, CEO of Black Elk Energy. "This new technical measure will aid in the overall tracking and management of our platforms in the Gulf. Black Elk Energy maintains an intranet site that provides a gulf-wide view of each of our platforms, which indicates a green symbol for every structure that’s operating normally."

"We commend Black Elk Energy for initiating a proactive measure for their platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, just in time for hurricane season," said Kevin Voisin, Vice President/Partner of ES&H Consulting & Training Group. "We believe this project proves Black Elk’s commitment to the environment and certainly demonstrates their efforts in going above and beyond industry standards to diligently monitor the integrity of their platforms."

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Ithaca Inks Earn-In Agreement on Hurricane Discovery

Ithaca Inks Earn-In Agreement on Hurricane Discovery

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Ithaca Energy Inc.

Ithaca has signed an Earn In agreement with Challenger Minerals (North Sea) Limited ("CMI") on the Hurricane discovery ("Hurricane") in Block 29/10b, within the Ithaca operated Greater Stella Development Area.

Hurricane was discovered in 1995 by well 29/10-4Z which tested the western lobe of a mapped structure and encountered light oil (41 degrees API) in a 62 foot section of reservoir sands; no drill stem test was undertaken at that time. The Hurricane appraisal well is being designed to confirm hydrocarbons in the eastern lobe of the structure characterized by high porosity (up to 30%) channelized Paleocene Rogaland sandstones. On successful appraisal of Hurricane by the initial well, the intention is to drill a sidetrack 'keeper' well up structure in anticipation of future development and tie back to the Stella hub.

Under the terms of the Earn In agreement, CMI is committed to pay a share of costs of the initial well in Block 29/10b. In consideration for this commitment CMI is provided with an option, exercisable no later than 90 days following abandonment or suspension of the initial appraisal and any sidetrack well, to take an interest in Block 29/10b. Under the Earn In arrangements, CMI will pay 40% of gross Hurricane initial appraisal well costs in exchange for a 31% equity interest in Block 29/10b, thereby carrying a part of Ithaca's share of all costs of drilling an initial appraisal well. In addition, upon successful appraisal, CMI will pay 40% of gross costs of a drill stem well test of any sidetrack. All additional costs, including those for planned sidetrack drilling, shall be apportioned such that CMI shall pay its 31% pro rata share.

The transaction is subject to agreeing 'turnkey' terms with Applied Drilling Technology International ("ADTI") (a subsidiary of Transocean Inc.) for the provision of a suitable drilling unit and well management services. Upon agreement of 'turnkey' terms and provision of a suitable rig, Ithaca anticipates that the appraisal well will be commenced in Q4 2011.

Ithaca currently holds 100% equity interest in the Hurricane discovery and Block 29/10b.

Musings: Updated 2011 Hurricane Forecast Still Calls for Active Year

Musings: Updated 2011 Hurricane Forecast Still Calls for Active Year

Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Parks Paton Hoepfl & Brown
by G. Allen Brooks


The latest forecast update from Professors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the Colorado State University (CSU) says the upcoming hurricane season is expected to see above-average activity. The April 6th forecast is slightly lower than their December 2010 forecast largely due to uncertainty about the sea surface temperatures in both the South Pacific and South Atlantic oceans that can assist or retard the development and strengthening of tropical storms.

The forecasting team has developed a new April methodology based on a data collected from 1982-2010. There are four predictors employed in the model with two of them based on sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The Pacific Ocean for most of the past year has been cooler than normal, which helped contribute to the Atlantic basin’s storm activity last year mostly turning north before reaching the U.S. In general, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean have been 0.50C-1.00C below average.

Exhibit 21.  Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures Low


Source:  Colorado State University

On the other side of the globe, Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at or above average levels. They have cooled recently but most likely that has been caused by a shift from a negative phase for the North Atlantic Oscillation to a positive phase. Atmospheric conditions currently are conducive for an active hurricane season as wind shear, a force that can limit the development and strengthening of tropical storms, across the basin has been well below average over the past two months.

Exhibit 22.  Atlantic Ocean Temperatures Near Normal
   
Source:  Colorado State University

With these conditions, the CSU forecasting team began looking for analog years to help fine-tune their forecast. They were looking for years generally characterized by weak to moderate La Niña conditions and above-average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic sea surface temperatures during February and March. They found five seasons that met these conditions. Four of them had either neutral or La Niña conditions during the hurricane season and all four of them were very active years. Those four years were 1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008.

Exhibit 23.  Analog Years For Hurricane Forecast
   
Source:  Colorado State University, PPHB

The forecasters also found 2006, which had the same February-March conditions. That year, however, experienced an unexpected El Niño, which greatly reduced hurricane activity.

The CSU team anticipates 2011 to be slightly more active than what was experienced in the average of these five analog years due to the very active season predicted by their new statistical model. It is interesting that there were only two analog years that fit the parameters for both the December 2010 and April 2011 forecasts, and those years were 1999 and 2008.

Exhibit 24.  Latest Hurricane Forecast Down Slightly

Source:  Colorado State University, PPHB

The CSU forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms, down one from the December 2010 forecast total. It also expects there to be nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The total number of storm days will be down by five, from 85 to 80, with a similar reduction for each of the other storm categories.

In terms of landfall probabilities, the forecast calls for a 72% probability of a storm hitting the entire U.S. coastline compared to the 52% average for the past century. There is a 48% chance of a landing on the East Coast including the Florida peninsula compared to the historic 31% rate.  For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, there is a 47% chance of a tropical storm landfall versus the historical average of 30%. Despite the higher probabilities, nature is such that it is impossible to forecast with any degree of accuracy until a storm is on its way whether it will reach land.  For the offshore energy industry, it will need to be on alert this hurricane season, although if the current pace of permitting continues, there won’t be too many offshore rigs to have to worry about this fall. Is that a backhanded positive?

Download the PDF Musings041211.pdf