Lundin Reports Strong 2Q Results, Boosts Output Forecast

- Lundin Reports Strong 2Q Results, Boosts Output Forecast

Wednesday, August 03, 2011
Lundin Petroleum AB

Lundin reported for the six month period ended June 30, 2011

Six months ended June 30, 2011

• Production of 32,300 boepd up 13% from the first six months 2010
• Profit after tax of MUSD 130.3 up 526% from the first six months 2010
• EBITDA of MUSD 505.3 up 96% from the first six months 2010
• Operating cash flow of MUSD 390.3 up 52% from the first six months 2010
• Net debt down to below MUSD 120 from MUSD 410 at year end
• Five exploration discoveries, four in Norway and one in Malaysia
• Ten Norwegian licenses awarded in the 2010 Norwegian licensing round, six as operator
• Operated license awarded in Barents Sea in the 21st Norwegian licensing round
• Operated Gurita block awarded in the Natuna Sea, offshore Indonesia

Second Quarter ended June 30, 2011

• Production of 31,100 boepd
• Profit after tax of MUSD 76.9
• EBITDA of MUSD 266.9
• Operating cash flow of MUSD 196.7
• Three exploration discoveries – Skalle and Earb South discoveries in Norway and Tarap discovery in Malaysia
• Appraisal well confirmed extension of the Avaldsnes discovery
• New operated block PM307 awarded in Malaysia
• Brynhild field plan of development (formerly called Nemo) submitted

Comments from C. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO

Lundin Petroleum achieved excellent results in the second quarter of 2011 with increased profitability and cash flow. What is extremely pleasing however, is the continued exploration success. I have always highlighted that the major valuation creation for our company will be achieved through increasing our oil and gas resources, and the best way to do that is through exploration.

Lundin Petroleum produced a net result for the first six months of MUSD 130.3. The strong production coupled with oil prices achieved of well over USD 100 per barrel resulted in operating cash flow of MUSD 390.3 and EBITDA of MUSD 505.3. Despite our significant exploration and development investment program net debt during the first half of the year has reduced from MUSD 410 to below MUSD 120.

The positive exploration news has continued during the second quarter with further discoveries at Skalle in PL438 in the Barents Sea, Earb South in PL505 in the northern Norwegian north Sea and Tarap in Block SB303 offshore East Malaysia. In addition the results of the first Avaldsnes appraisal well were extremely encouraging confirming the extension of the Avaldsnes field to the south east. We have now achieved five discoveries from our first five exploration wells this year following the Tellus and Caterpillar discoveries during the first quarter.

Our business is continuing to grow and I am confident we will continue to increase shareholder value. We are generating strong cash flow and profitability from our existing production which is outperforming, our development projects are proceeding well and our exploration success continues.

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Infamous Oil Forecasts that Failed & What Makes a More Solid Forecast

- Infamous Oil Forecasts that Failed & What Makes a More Solid Forecast

Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Rigzone Staff
by Barbara Saunders

Even before Colonel Edwin Drake confirmed a way to drill for crude oil in 1859, pundits were already active in predicting the future of oil. Some called it "Drake's Folly" and forecast that drilling was not the way to reach oh well.

Skeptics called America's first drilled oil well "Drake's Folly" and insisted that drilling was no way to reach . . . Oh well.

But oil prices are what draw the primary predictions nowadays, even though $100 per barrel oil is really nothing new. During the Civil War, for instance, the price of oil soared to about $115 per barrel when adjusted for inflation in 2010 dollars. In fact, until an extended period after World War II through about 1970, oil prices were anything but stable and were often above levels seen in the 1980s and 1990's even without inflation taken into account.

In real terms, or adjusted for inflation, oil prices hit the equivalent of $100 per barrel or more in 1861 and again in 1980.

This underscores how poorly oil prices tracked inflation in modern history and the importance of technology in keeping pace with supply, regardless of price. In fact, according to the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE,) during the extended periods of low prices after the price crash of 1986, a number of technological advances occurred that lowered finding and lifting costs. These included the polycrystalline carbon drill bit and the expanded use of horizontal drilling.

In terms of price predictions, one of the biggest boners occurred only a few years ago, when forecasters during the summer of 2008 were predicting that oil prices would remain at levels of $150 or higher for the foreseeable future. Then came the global financial meltdown and took oil prices along with it, with an oil price plunge to the $30's by the following winter ooops!

A similar prediction occurred during the 1980's. Following the supply panics of the late 1970's, many were predicting that oil would reach $100 per barrel in nominal, or pre-inflation terms, by or before mid-decade. However, no such thing happened. Consumers, in part, had responded by purchasing much smaller cars than in the past and prices ultimately cratered by mid-decade, into the single digits for some crude grades.

"Beware all forecasts that do not have a strong basis in quantifiable supply/demand trends.

The problem with these particular forecasts was that some were predicated on wishful thinking, primarily by traders, not sound market fundamentals. Beware all forecasts that do not have a strong basis in quantifiable supply/demand trends. Just because renewed tensions have erupted in the Middle East, for instance, does not mean that oil prices are destined to fly up. Some of what is touted as "forecasts" in news bulletins is really the hype of traders hoping to make headlines that will push prices up on the commodity futures markets. Such hype may work briefly, but invariably, when there's nothing backing a prediction, prices will drop back in short order.

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Musings: Updated 2011 Hurricane Forecast Still Calls for Active Year

Musings: Updated 2011 Hurricane Forecast Still Calls for Active Year

Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Parks Paton Hoepfl & Brown
by G. Allen Brooks


The latest forecast update from Professors Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the Colorado State University (CSU) says the upcoming hurricane season is expected to see above-average activity. The April 6th forecast is slightly lower than their December 2010 forecast largely due to uncertainty about the sea surface temperatures in both the South Pacific and South Atlantic oceans that can assist or retard the development and strengthening of tropical storms.

The forecasting team has developed a new April methodology based on a data collected from 1982-2010. There are four predictors employed in the model with two of them based on sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The Pacific Ocean for most of the past year has been cooler than normal, which helped contribute to the Atlantic basin’s storm activity last year mostly turning north before reaching the U.S. In general, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean have been 0.50C-1.00C below average.

Exhibit 21.  Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures Low


Source:  Colorado State University

On the other side of the globe, Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at or above average levels. They have cooled recently but most likely that has been caused by a shift from a negative phase for the North Atlantic Oscillation to a positive phase. Atmospheric conditions currently are conducive for an active hurricane season as wind shear, a force that can limit the development and strengthening of tropical storms, across the basin has been well below average over the past two months.

Exhibit 22.  Atlantic Ocean Temperatures Near Normal
   
Source:  Colorado State University

With these conditions, the CSU forecasting team began looking for analog years to help fine-tune their forecast. They were looking for years generally characterized by weak to moderate La Niña conditions and above-average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic sea surface temperatures during February and March. They found five seasons that met these conditions. Four of them had either neutral or La Niña conditions during the hurricane season and all four of them were very active years. Those four years were 1955, 1996, 1999 and 2008.

Exhibit 23.  Analog Years For Hurricane Forecast
   
Source:  Colorado State University, PPHB

The forecasters also found 2006, which had the same February-March conditions. That year, however, experienced an unexpected El Niño, which greatly reduced hurricane activity.

The CSU team anticipates 2011 to be slightly more active than what was experienced in the average of these five analog years due to the very active season predicted by their new statistical model. It is interesting that there were only two analog years that fit the parameters for both the December 2010 and April 2011 forecasts, and those years were 1999 and 2008.

Exhibit 24.  Latest Hurricane Forecast Down Slightly

Source:  Colorado State University, PPHB

The CSU forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms, down one from the December 2010 forecast total. It also expects there to be nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. The total number of storm days will be down by five, from 85 to 80, with a similar reduction for each of the other storm categories.

In terms of landfall probabilities, the forecast calls for a 72% probability of a storm hitting the entire U.S. coastline compared to the 52% average for the past century. There is a 48% chance of a landing on the East Coast including the Florida peninsula compared to the historic 31% rate.  For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, there is a 47% chance of a tropical storm landfall versus the historical average of 30%. Despite the higher probabilities, nature is such that it is impossible to forecast with any degree of accuracy until a storm is on its way whether it will reach land.  For the offshore energy industry, it will need to be on alert this hurricane season, although if the current pace of permitting continues, there won’t be too many offshore rigs to have to worry about this fall. Is that a backhanded positive?

Download the PDF Musings041211.pdf

Oiltanking Partners Files For $200 Million IPO (OTLP)

Oiltanking Partners Files For $200 Million IPO (OTLP)



Oiltanking Partners LP plans to offer up to $200 million in common units in an initial public offering.

The limited partnership was formed in March, and will serve as a growth vehicle in the U.S. for the Hamburg, Germany based Oiltanking GmbH, the indirect owner of the company's general partner, according to the company's filing with the SEC.

Oiltanking GmbH is the world's second largest independent storage provider for crude, refined products, and liquid chemicals and gases. Oiltanking Partners has terminating, storage, and pipeline operations in Texas and the upper Gulf Coast.

Oiltanking Partners plans to apply to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol OTLP.

Ford's March Sales Outpace GM's (F,GM)

Ford's March Sales Outpace GM's (F,GM)



Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) posted a 19% increase in vehicle sales for the month of March, driven by strong growth for its Fiesta, Fusion, Escape, and Explorer, as well as the F-Series, which saw year-over-year sales growth of 25%.

Ford's monthly total of 212,777 surpassed that of General Motors (NYSE:GM), which reported selling 206,621 vehicles in the month, though GM outsold Ford for the quarter, 592,545 to 496,720.

Ken Czubay, vice president of Ford U.S. marketing, sales and service, said, "With gasoline prices eclipsing $3.50 a gallon, consumers are placing a high priority on fuel efficiency in every size and kind of vehicle. Customers are rewarding Ford for our investment in new products as well as more efficient engines and transmissions, which save them money at the pump whether they drive Fiestas or F-Series trucks."