Monday, June 13, 2011
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
by David Goodhue, The Reporter, Tavernier, Fla.
The potential for vast oil reserves off the coast of Cuba, and the possibility that drilling there could start by the beginning of fall, has some saying that the United States could end or soften its Cold War-era trade embargo on its neighbor to the south.
Rice University political science professor and Latin American expert Mark Jones said ending the 50-year-old embargo remains a political non-starter among Florida politicians who feel it would make them appear "soft," which would result in a backlash from anti-Castro Cuban-Americans and cost them elections.
But, he said, Americans' appetite for the embargo is weakening and younger generations of Cuban-Americans are finding it harder to justify continuing the punitive policy.
"In the past, that threat [from anti-Castro voters] was real, but in recent years it is increasingly hollow with the proportion of the Cuban-American population that strongly supports the embargo diminishing, both due to a softening of attitude and particularly to generational turnover," Jones said in an e-mail this week.
The gateway for the United States to end or weaken the embargo may be the giant oil rig, the Scarabeo 9, which could be on its way to the Florida Straits from a shipyard in Singapore any day now. The Spanish oil company RepSol is the first of several foreign energy companies scheduled to explore for oil in deep water 50 miles from Key West. Drilling could begin by September.
Blocked by embargo
The operation is worrisome to Floridians and those in other coastal states in large part because the trade embargo would make it difficult for the United States to lend equipment, manpower and expertise to the area should there be an oil spill like the BP DeepWater Horizon disaster that lasted for months in the spring and summer of 2010.
The Obama administration has signaled it wants to improve relations with Cuba's communist government. In a controversial move, President Barack Obama last year lifted some travel restrictions for Cuban-Americans visiting relatives and friends on the island. Going any further, however, could prove too politically risky. But if the Cuban half of the Straits becomes an oil-producing hub, lifting sanctions may make more sense and appear justified, Jones said.
"What the oil production angle allows the administration to do is present to Floridians a self-interested rationale for softening or ending the embargo; if we do not, there could be a BP-type catastrophe, and the presence of the embargo would adversely impact the ability to keep the spill from harming the Florida coast and fisheries," Jones said.
Lawmakers respond
But Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida's senior senator, said through spokesman Bryan Gulley that the U.S. government already has licenses in place that it could authorize to allow companies and others to provide assistance in a disaster situation.
Gulley added that Nelson would not support lifting or easing the embargo "unless it was tied to democratic reforms in the country, including free and open elections and the release of political prisoners."
Representatives for Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida's Republican senator, did not respond to interview requests for this report.
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, South Florida's Republican congresswoman, remains steadfastly against granting any leeway to the Castro regime. Her office e-mailed a statement regarding the question of lifting the embargo that started, "I don't deal in hypotheticals, but in what is actually happening now."
"I favor maintaining the embargo until in Cuba there is free expression, multi-party elections, freedom for political prisoners and human rights are respected," she said.
Both Nelson and Ros-Lehtinen have introduced legislation in response to the Scarabeo 9 project that would punish companies that help Cuba in its energy-production endeavors. Nelson last month asked Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to apply diplomatic pressure on Spain to convince RepSol to abandon the project.
Attitude change
But Jones thinks a lot can happen in the next year or two, especially if RepSol finds a lot of oil. He said he expects the Obama administration to stay quiet on the embargo through the November 2012 presidential elections. But if Obama wins re-election and the straits prove to be rich with crude, Jones said to expect a ramped-up effort on Obama's part to end the embargo.
"During his second term, assuming substantial oil reserves are found and significant production begins in Cuban waters, I would expect him to amplify the administration's movement towards better relations with Cuba, a major component of which would be ending or limiting the scope of the embargo and setting up bilateral mechanisms by which to deal with any potential oil spill or related catastrophe," Jones wrote in an e-mail.
Lee Hunt, president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors, favors relaxing certain aspects of the embargo, especially when it comes to oil exploration. But he said there is still avid support for maintaining the embargo among many Floridians and an equally strong opposition toward drilling off the state's coast. These factors together place doubt on Jones' theory, he said.
"I don't think Floridians are so 'fuel hungry' as to concede a half century's ideology for a few barrels of oil," Hunt said.
He said he did agree that if any significant change happens in the United States' Cuban policy, it won't be until after the 2012 elections.
"However, we are continuing to work to create a narrow exception to the embargo for services required in the event of a spill, i.e. in U.S. interests in protecting its coast and environment," Hunt said.
Jorge Pinon, a former energy industry executive and current visiting research fellow at the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, said changes could be coming in the embargo, but only in terms of oil equipment and services. He agreed with Nelson that these exemptions would be given only in cases of emergency and could be made by the president issuing a "general license."
"Remember it is Congress, not even the president, who can get rid of the U.S. economic embargo against Cuba," Pinon said.
Copyright (c) 2011, The Reporter, Tavernier, Fla.
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