Oil Demand to Increase; Supply Less Certain -Study

- Oil Demand to Increase; Supply Less Certain -Study

Thursday, August 04, 2011
Ernst & Young LLP

Oil demand and prices should continue to rise in the third quarter of 2011 according to indicators, even with ongoing uncertainty with respect to the economic recovery, deficit reduction initiatives in the US and the debt crisis in Europe.

In the first quarter of this year, with expectations for continued economic improvement and as a result of the supply disruptions from the Middle East, oil prices rose to over $100/barrel. But after peaking in the second quarter, crude prices fell back slightly, in spite of the announced stock release by the International Energy Agency (IEA), as the economic recovery lost some steam.

Oil

The bright spot in the oil outlook is the increasing activity in the Gulf of Mexico since the oil spill last year, with the first new production out of the Gulf coming in the second quarter. While overall production remains below pre-2010 levels, the application and permitting process is substantially improved, and increasing production will create jobs and increase domestic energy supplies at a time of expected strong demand growth. Oil production elsewhere in the Americas continued to increase as well, notably from the Bakken formation in the Upper Midwest, as well as from the Canadian oil sands and Brazil.

The big unknowns for oil producers are the short-term effects of the IEA's release of 60 million barrels from emergency supplies and OPEC members' disagreement over supply increases. The IEA's release announcement brought prices down temporarily and is expected to fill the void of Libyan supplies. However, as the market moves into the high-demand season, the IEA release will not meet that increased demand, and the market will need more supply from OPEC at a time when its spare capacity is at its lowest level in more than 20 years. Beyond the short-term, over the next three to five years, pressures on OPEC to increase capacity and production are expected to increase substantially.

"Oil prices are dictated by supply and demand, and all signs point to modest oil demand growth and uncertain supply," said Marcela Donadio, Americas Oil and Gas Leader, Ernst & Young LLP. "Barring a strong economic shock, continued strong oil prices seem to be in order over the next three to five years."

Gas

US natural gas production continues to grow, with the latest production figures reaching the highest point in almost 40 years. Shale gas is driving the growth and is now approaching about 30% of US total gas production, even as gas-directed drilling has slowed and issues surrounding the economic feasibility and potential environmental impacts of the resource are raised.

"We maintain that natural gas is a sound solution to the nation's need for domestic, cleaner-burning fuel," said Donadio. "We have the resource in abundance and we know how to produce it safely. We need to put any questions around that to rest and focus on creating more opportunities to increase natural gas demand."

Oilfield services

Oilfield service activity is dictated by upstream spending. Spending is expected to continue to grow by about 15 to 20% in 2011, returning close to the peak 2008 levels. Service capacity is being strained by the unconventionals boom. Cost increases and staffing shortages are appearing. This resurgence of the oilfield service segment is being driven by fit-for-purposes technology such as rotary steerable rigs and directional/horizontal drilling; strong oil prices; and the efficient application of shale gas technologies including multi-stage fracking and horizontal drilling.

Transactions

The second quarter was another fairly strong quarter for oil and gas transaction activity, marking seven consecutive quarters of deal growth. Deal activity in Americas continues to dominate the global transactions landscape.

Looking into the second half of year, transaction activity should stay fairly strong, boosted by the expected continued high oil prices and the ever-high geopolitical risk, tempered only by the still reasonably high levels of economic uncertainty, particularly in the US and Europe.

Oil & Gas Post

Promote Your Page Too
LINK

Gulf Weather System Nearly Certain To Become A Tropical Cyclone

- Gulf Weather System Nearly Certain To Become A Tropical Cyclone

Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Dow Jones Newswires
HOUSTON
by Isabel Ordonez & Ryan Dezember

U.S. forecasters said a weather system rumbling into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will almost certainly become a tropical cyclone by Friday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center said satellite imagery indicates a tropical depression or tropical storm could be forming 90 miles north of Cancun, Mexico. The system, passing through the channel between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba's western tip, is moving west-northwest at 15 miles per hour, forecasters said.

The Hurricane Center has dispatched a Hurricane Hunter airplane to the area to investigate conditions. The storm has a "near 100%" chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by midday Friday, forecasters said.

The Gulf accounted for about 30% of all U.S. oil production last year, with more than 606 million barrels. Gulf wells also account for about 7.2% of U.S. natural gas production.

Shell, one of the largest producers in the Gulf of Mexico, said it has evacuated some non-essential personnel from its southwest operations due to the threat of a possible storm.

The company said it evacuated about 70 people and that production isn't affected. Evacuation started Tuesday and continued Wednesday, the company said.

"These personnel are not essential to core producing," the company said.

Shell said it began securing operations on the Perdido platform, which it operates in partnership with Chevron and BP. About 200 miles south of Galveston, Texas, in about 8,000 feet of water, the Perdido platform is the world's deepest drilling and production platform. Its peak production is the equivalent of about 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

Shell also said it is securing operations on the Noble Danny Adkins, a deep-water drill ship it is leasing from Noble which is working in the vicinity of the Perdido platform. Noble spokesman John Breed said the company isn't evacuating workers from the rig but is "securing operations" aboard the ship.

Other major Gulf of Mexico producers BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips said Wednesday they are monitoring the weather and developing plans should it threaten their operations.

Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Oil & Gas Post

Promote Your Page Too